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    當心倒向戰爭

    The UN may seed more troops to Cougo. Would they do auy good?

    聯合國可能向剛果(金)派遣更多的部隊,但足他們能起多大作用呢?

     

        WHEN elephants fight, goes a Swahiliz sayingj, it's the grass that suffers.  And  so it is in eastern Congo, where civilians are being trampled in a terrible way in fighting involving Congolese troops, followers of the rebe leader, Laurent Nkunda, and an assortment' of nasty` militias. Some 250,000 people have been displaced. Reports of massacres, rape, cholera and hunger are multiplying'. Aid-workers say some 100,000 refugees are cut off from any help. Worse may come if the instability turns once again into a wider war.

    正如一句斯瓦希里語格言說的那樣,當大象打架時,遭殃的卻足小草這樣的情況就發生在剛果(金)東部,在一場卷入了剛果(金)軍隊、叛軍頭目洛朗·恩孔達的追隨者以及無賴民兵組成的鳥合之眾的戰爭中,平民正遭受著可怕的蹂踴大約25萬人流離失所有關屠殺、強奸、霍亂和饑餓的報道成倍增加救援人員說,大約有10萬難民得小到手側可的救助如果動亂進一步演變為史大范圍的戰爭,形勢司能史加惡化。

     

        The cane-wielding Mr Nkunda, a dissident" Tutsi general with ties to Rwanda, has led his rebels against the weak Congolese government for years. He declined to take part in the political process that led to the election of Joseph Kabila as president in 2006. He says he is defending fellow Tutsis against murderous Hutu militias who, he says, are being supported by the government in Kinshasa''.

    手持手杖的恩孔達先生足一位持小同政見的圖西族將軍,與盧1達有聯系他領導叛軍與軟弱的剛果(金)政府作戰己有數年他拒絕參加使得約瑟夫·片比拉2006年當選總統的政治進程他自稱足在保護圖西族同胞反抗蓄意謀殺的胡圖族民兵,而這些人得到了金沙薩政府的扶持。

     

        His soldiers have been poised" to take the lakeside town of Goma, the provincial capital and once a tourist destination. Congo's army, backed by a thin blue line of UN peacekeepers, is *in no shape" to resist him. It was supposed to be reconstituted"' from the various units, militias and rebels that fought in the civil war between 1998 and 2003. But poorly paid government soldiers have scattered" as rebels advanced, killing and looting the very people they were supposed to be protecting.

        他的卜兵己準備拿卜湖邊城市戈馬(北基伍省)省首府和昔日的旅游目的地得到少量的聯合國維和人員支援的剛果(金)軍隊則毫無還手之力這支軍隊據信足將小同隊伍、民兵和參與了199H年到2003年間內戰的叛軍重組而成的軍銅微薄的政府卜兵在叛軍推進時四散而逃,殺戮和劫掠他們原本應該保護的人民。

     

        General Nkunda has threatened to march across Congo to Kinshasa to overthrow Mr Kabila if he refuses to start formal talks with the rebels. That sounds fanciful': Congo, nearly the size of western Europe, is covered in thick jungle and has almost no roads. But Rwandan-backed rebels did take Kinshasa once before, in 1997, sweeping away the old dictator, Mobutu Sese  Seko,  and installing Mr Kabila's elephantine; father, Laurent. Rwandan-and Ugandan-backed forces came close to repeating the upheaval a year later, provoking the awful civil war that *sucked in forces from several nearby countries including Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe.

    恩孔達將軍威脅,如果卡比拉拒絕啟動與叛軍的正式對話,就要橫跨剛果(金)進軍首都金沙薩推翻他。這聽起來有些異想天開。剛果“卻,一個面積近乎西歐大小的國家,叢林密布,幾乎沒有公路。不過盧旺達支持的叛軍以前確也拿卜過金沙薩,那是在1997年,趕走了老獨裁者蒙博托·塞塞·塞科,扶持了卡比拉人高馬大的父親洛朗。盧旺達和烏干達扶持的軍隊一年后差一點再現劇變一幕,引發了那場將周邊數個國家包括安哥拉、納米比亞和津巴布韋的軍隊卷入的可怕內戰。

       

        General Nkunda knows that merely threatening such an assault will spread dismay and *play on popular dissatisfaction with Mr Kabila's government. "Kinshasa may be a dream but Nkunda seems intent on causing more trouble if he doesn't get what he wants," says a diplomat.

    恩孔達將軍知道僅僅是威脅要發動這樣的進攻就會傳布恐慌,并能利用民眾對卡比拉政府的普遍不滿。一位外交官稱:“(拿卜)金沙薩可能不現實,但恩孔達如果得不到他想要的,看來意欲制造更多的麻煩。”

     

         Outsiders have so far done little to help. United Nations officials have asked the Security Council to approve the deployment of 3,000 more peacekeepers to*bulk up'' the 17,000-strong; force already spread across Congo. But it could take months to raise the extra troops and deploy  them. It is unclear, moreover, how far  UN soldiers are really able or willing to protect  civilians.  Peacekeepers  in Kiwanja did not prevent a massacre of dozens last week.

    到現在為比局外者沒幫上什么忙。聯合國官員已請求安理會批準再部署3000名維和人員以增強已經散布在剛果(金)的多達1.7萬人的部隊。但要集結更多的部隊并實施部署可能還需要數月。此外,聯合國士兵是否真正能夠或者愿意保護平民,尚不可知維和人員上周在基旺加就未能阻比幾十人遭到屠殺。

     

        The European Union, which has two 1,500-strong battlegroups ready to deploy within days, has been *deaf to appeals for intervention. Neighbours may yet act; Angola has some troops in  Congo, training the army; the regional body, the Southern African Development Community,  said it was ready to send troops.

    歐盟對介入的呼聲一直未予理睬。歐盟目前己有兩支100人的作戰部隊,司一在數日之內待命部署鄰國或許會采取行動女Aj拉有一些軍人在剛果(金)培訓當地軍隊,地區性組織南部非洲發展共同體,稱它準備派遣部隊。

     

        A useful idea might be to get Rwanda to *hold back General Nkunda. This is not easy, not  least because its relations with some European countries have taken a bad turn. Diplomatic  pressure, especially from Rwanda's close friends, Britain and America, may be having some  effect: General Nkunda has not yet mounted his attack on Goma. But for how long will the   elephant be restrained.讓盧達阻比恩孔達將軍或許足個有用的主意這小太容易,主要足因為盧達與一些歐洲國家的關系己然交惡外交壓力,尤其足來自盧達的親密伙伴英國和美國的壓力可能會有一些效果所以恩孔達將軍至今還沒有對戈馬發動進攻但足這頭大象還能被約束多久?

        建正譯注自The Economist

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